Profiles

MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

MARKETS – 1st Quarter 2025

Consensus was expecting another year where US stocks outpaced their regional counterparts, many investors felt confident that a new Republican administration would amplify the theme of US exceptionalism. However, the story has played out quite differently so far. Elevated uncertainty stemming from the volatile nature of US trade policy has dampened growth expectations in the US, while in Europe, the fiscal response has been much more forceful than many were anticipating.

Against this backdrop, emerging market equities outperformed developed markets, with Chinese and Korean equities both performing strongly. Value stocks outperformed their growth counterparts, while smaller companies lagged, returning -3.6%, as rising trade uncertainty drove concerns around both weaker growth and stronger inflation. Commodities were the top performer over the quarter, boosted by a 19% rise in gold prices.

Given elevated uncertainty, it’s unsurprising that the Fed decided to take no action on interest rates over the quarter. Powell did, however, leave the door open to future rate cuts at the bank’s March meeting, suggesting that the Fed was more concerned about the downside risks to growth than the upside risks to inflation. US 10-year Treasury yields ended the quarter at 4.2%, 36 basis points lower relative to the start of January.

Despite the threat that tariffs pose to the growth outlook, solid corporate fundamentals have helped to limit spread widening in US credit thus far. While the moves in local government bond markets weighed on European credit returns, European investment grade credit spreads actually came in over the quarter.  A weaker US dollar proved supportive of emerging market debt, while a sharp fall in US real yields led inflation-linked bonds to outperform nominals.

OUTLOOK

Fixed Income

Uncertainties associated with the new US administration taking office, we remain very cautious on duration. We also recognize the refinancing risk associated with a steepening yield curve. For this reason, we consider intermediate maturities to be the best choice.

In credit markets, spreads are unquestionably historically very tight in the corporate sector. However, we also note that the high yield market has never been of such high quality, with 56% of the issues rated BB vs. less than 40% 15 years ago. The number of bonds trading at distressed levels is also particularly low, pointing to a low default rate in 2025 (between 1-1.5%). No room for spread tightening and limited risks of spread widening are suggesting that we’re about to move into a carry environment.

We therefore favour strategies with attractive yields and low sensitivities to interest rate and spread, such as short-dated High Yield, CLOs, Cat Bonds, Subordinated Financials and Corporate Hybrids. For emerging debt, we prefer Hard Currency strategies and are taking a cautious stance on local debt.

Equities

The environment for active management remains particularly challenging for equities. The strong outperformance of the “magnificent seven” will remain the key element for alpha generation.

We are therefore maintaining and have recently reinforced the growth style, while keeping exposure to small caps or long/short strategies with a net long exposure in Europe.

Alternatives

Regarding alternative strategies, we concentrate on the selection of true market neutral macro strategies or private debt able to deliver returns immune from economic cycles.

We made a few one-to-one switches during the 4th quarter 2024, replacing two portfolio  that  expectations by robust macro strategies, and in the 1st quarter of this year, continued to add multi-strategy funds to portfolios.

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCES –  1st Quarter 2025

Overall, all our model portfolios delivered alpha during a highly volatile quarter. It is great achievement across The short duration cost us slightly during the 1st quarter, offset by the portfolio’s greater carry. Alternative fixed-income strategies such as Cat bonds and CLOs continued to play their decorrelation role perfectly, particularly in March.

Similarly, our alternative funds (balanced portfolio), such as merger arbitrage and macro strategies, helped us to post absolute positive performances, even in March.

In equities, active management generated alpha again in March after a neutral start of the year. On the other hand, overexposure to small-cap equities proved detrimental in the first quarter.

Yield & Income Portfolio (in USD) +0.8% (+35bps vs. the benchmark)

Balanced Portfolio (in USD) +0.4% (+43bps)

Growth Portfolio (in USD) -0.3% (+11bps)

US Dollar Portfolios

USD - Yield and Income

Cumulative Performance to end February 2025


Calendar Returns

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
Portfolio 2025 2,12% 0,17% 2,29%
Benchmark 1,37% 0,72% 2,10%
Portfolio 2024 -0,14% 1,27% 2,02% -1,74% 1,74% 1,01% 1,72% 1,87% 2,12% -1,10% 1,51% -1,05% 9,51%
Benchmark -0,07% 0,80% 1,65% -2,35% 1,96% 1,29% 1,89% 1,65% 1,58% -1,84% 2,01% -1,57% 7,08%
Portfolio 2023 4,80% -1,78% 1,06% 0,73% -0,75% 2,50% 2,23% -1,19% -2,02% -2,14% 5,76% 3,97% 13,52%
Benchmark 4,03% -2,19% 2,62% 0,78% -0,72% 1,89% 1,14% -1,11% -2,69% -1,58% 5,60% 3,84% 11,82%
Portfolio 2022 -3,31% -2,26% -0,17% -3,70% -0,36% -4,63% 3,81% -1,49% -6,05% 2,58% 5,34% -0,67% -10,97%
Benchmark -2,68% -1,78% -0,80% -4,67% -0,08% -3,95% 4,16% -3,28% -5,55% 1,73% 4,50% -2,27% -14,22%
Portfolio 2021 0,20% 0,67% -0,24% 2,24% 0,81% 0,64% 0,46% 1,11% -1,94% 1,32% -1,97% 1,70% 5,04%
Benchmark -0,51% -0,28% 0,62% 1,62% 0,66% 0,76% 1,05% 0,69% -2,01% 1,52% -0,33% 1,06% 4,90%
Portfolio 2020 0,19% -2,47% -10,45% 6,50% 4,71% 2,76% 3,30% 2,59% -1,03% -0,48% 5,95% 2,77% 13,96%
Benchmark 0,81% -1,89% -5,60% 4,64% 1,62% 1,37% 2,46% 1,45% -0,80% -0,83% 4,49% 1,73% 9,40%
Portfolio 2019 4,59% 1,67% 0,63% 1,97% -2,39% 2,91% 0,90% -1,11% 0,95% 1,69% 1,37% 2,17% 16,26%
Benchmark 3,39% 0,96% 1,58% 1,16% -1,02% 3,11% 0,61% 0,71% 0,37% 0,79% 0,72% 1,01% 14,14%
Portfolio 2018 2,88% -1,91% -0,66% 0,76% -0,63% -0,50% 1,50% -0,20% 0,71% -3,54% -0,22% -2,48% -4,36%
Benchmark 1,42% -1,55% -0,21% 0,07% 0,26% -0,04% 1,00% 0,42% -0,12% -2,63% 0,80% -1,48% -2,12%
Portfolio 2017 2,15% 1,58% 0,72% 1,01% 1,27% 0,19% 1,55% 0,03% 0,58% 1,05% 0,61% 1,07% 12,45%
Benchmark 0,68% 1,49% 0,35% 0,95% 1,10% -0,06% 1,13% 0,71% 0,32% 0,95% 0,73% 0,63% 9,36%
Portfolio 2016 1,16% 2,25% 1,04% 0,86% -0,43% -1,25% 1,25% 4,93%
Benchmark 1,04% 1,81% 0,06% 0,17% -1,23% -0,86% 0,84% 1,81%

Benchmark: 1/3 iShares MSCI All Country World ETF (USD) + 2/3 X II Barclays Gbl Agg ETF H USD
Source: WS Partners, Morningstar


USD - Balanced

Cumulative Performance to end February 2025


Calendar Returns

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
Portfolio 2025 2,10% -0,04% 2,06%
Benchmark 1,87% 0,39% 2,26%
Portfolio 2024 -0,04% 1,62% 2,25% -1,95% 1,28% 0,89% 1,53% 1,59% 1,90% -1,09% 1,77% -1,17% 8,82%
Benchmark 0,10% 1,66% 2,01% -2,57% 2,48% 1,52% 1,83% 1,87% 1,76% -1,95% 2,43% -1,77% 9,59%
Portfolio 2023 4,06% -1,20% 0,99% 0,55% -1,02% 2,26% 2,05% -0,89% -1,73% -2,15% 4,78% 3,50% 11,43%
Benchmark 4,82% -2,36% 2,74% 0,95% -0,81% 2,88% 1,77% -1,52% -3,05% -1,94% 6,51% 4,08% 14,42%
Portfolio 2022 -3,47% -1,52% -0,15% -3,19% -0,75% -4,57% 4,29% -1,58% -5,42% 2,79% 4,06% -1,16% -10,67%
Benchmark -3,22% -1,99% -0,02% -5,49% -0,03% -5,06% 4,87% -3,38% -6,55% 2,81% 5,31% -2,68% -15,14%
Portfolio 2021 0,61% 1,39% -0,24% 1,99% 0,82% 0,76% 0,47% 0,95% -1,93% 1,25% -1,57% 1,99% 6,59%
Benchmark -0,49% 0,37% 1,14% 2,31% 0,88% 0,90% 0,96% 1,15% -2,54% 2,43% -0,85% 1,80% 8,25%
Portfolio 2020 -0,68% -2,98% -8,44% 5,95% 3,34% 2,14% 3,08% 2,52% -0,96% -0,17% 6,33% 3,04% 12,93%
Benchmark 0,33% -3,43% -7,62% 6,15% 2,29% 1,82% 3,15% 2,60% -1,43% -1,24% 6,47% 2,45% 11,20%
Portfolio 2019 4,01% 1,50% 0,36% 1,64% -2,65% 2,65% 0,92% -1,37% 1,24% 1,94% 1,43% 1,99% 14,36%
Benchmark 4,50% 1,38% 1,48% 1,71% -2,24% 3,97% 0,54% -0,06% 0,80% 1,28% 1,15% 1,63% 17,18%
Portfolio 2018 2,72% -1,47% -0,42% 0,82% -0,97% -0,54% 1,49% -0,32% 0,78% -3,58% -0,07% -2,11% -3,76%
Benchmark 2,47% -2,21% -0,73% 0,31% 0,22% -0,15% 1,50% 0,48% 0,02% -3,84% 0,96% -2,88% -3,96%
Portfolio 2017 1,76% 1,14% 0,62% 0,77% 0,78% 0,46% 1,67% -0,02% 1,16% 1,08% 0,86% 0,60% 11,43%
Benchmark 1,19% 1,82% 0,56% 1,10% 1,37% 0,07% 1,54% 0,63% 0,72% 1,23% 1,02% 0,88% 12,82%
Portfolio 2016 -0,07% 2,70% 0,85% 0,68% -0,59% 0,57% 1,46% 5,71%
Benchmark 0,62% 2,43% 0,12% 0,28% -1,35% -0,46% 1,17% 2,81%

Benchmark: 1/2 iShares MSCI All Country World ETF (USD) + 1/2 X II Barclays Gbl Agg ETF H USD
Source: WS Partners, Morningstar


USD - Growth

Cumulative Performance to end February 2025


Calendar Returns

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
Portfolio 2025 2,84% -0,86% 1,96%
Benchmark 2,36% 0,06% 2,43%
Portfolio 2024 -0,52% 2,56% 2,46% -2,37% 1,96% 1,51% 1,63% 2,12% 2,70% -1,60% 2,59% -1,62% 11,80%
Benchmark 0,26% 2,52% 2,38% -2,79% 3,01% 1,75% 1,77% 2,09% 1,94% -2,06% 2,85% -1,98% 12,13%
Portfolio 2023 6,11% -2,18% 1,42% 0,38% -1,04% 3,50% 3,03% -2,15% -2,98% -2,89% 7,16% 4,60% 15,22%
Benchmark 5,61% -2,52% 2,85% 1,12% -0,89% 3,86% 2,40% -1,93% -3,41% -2,30% 7,42% 4,32% 17,04%
Portfolio 2022 -5,28% -1,74% 0,30% -4,87% -0,59% -6,19% 5,02% -2,16% -7,50% 3,56% 6,73% -1,73% -14,51%
Benchmark -3,77% -2,21% 0,75% -6,32% 0,01% -6,18% 5,58% -3,48% -7,55% 3,90% 6,12% -3,10% -16,11%
Portfolio 2021 0,55% 1,37% -0,56% 2,80% 0,62% 0,94% 0,34% 1,59% -2,47% 2,50% -2,66% 1,60% 6,68%
Benchmark -0,47% 1,01% 1,65% 3,00% 1,11% 1,04% 0,88% 1,61% -3,06% 3,33% -1,36% 2,54% 11,67%
Portfolio 2020 -0,68% -4,30% -9,68% 8,05% 3,42% 2,83% 4,24% 3,53% -1,30% -0,43% 8,50% 3,72% 17,74%
Benchmark -0,16% -4,98% -9,63% 7,67% 2,96% 2,26% 3,84% 3,75% -2,06% -1,65% 8,44% 3,17% 12,84%
Portfolio 2019 6,20% 2,06% 0,71% 2,39% -4,35% 4,44% 0,61% -2,00% 0,95% 2,30% 2,02% 2,51% 18,89%
Benchmark 5,61% 1,81% 1,38% 2,27% -3,47% 4,83% 0,46% -0,83% 1,23% 1,77% 1,57% 2,25% 20,23%
Portfolio 2018 3,65% -2,87% -1,07% 0,82% -0,44% -1,19% 1,66% 0,54% 0,00% -6,66% 0,64% -4,12% -9,06%
Benchmark 3,53% -2,87% -1,24% 0,54% 0,17% -0,26% 2,00% 0,55% 0,16% -5,05% 1,13% -4,28% -5,81%
Portfolio 2017 2,83% 1,52% 1,28% 1,65% 1,88% 0,46% 2,48% -0,28% 1,77% 1,50% 1,22% 1,64% 19,45%
Benchmark 1,70% 2,14% 0,78% 1,25% 1,65% 0,19% 1,95% 0,54% 1,12% 1,51% 1,32% 1,12% 16,37%
Portfolio 2016 -1,01% 4,18% 1,46% 1,17% -1,04% 0,28% 1,33% 6,44%
Benchmark 0,21% 3,05% 0,19% 0,39% -1,47% -0,06% 1,50% 3,80%

Benchmark: 2/3 iShares MSCI All Country World ETF (USD) + 1/3 X II Barclays Gbl Agg ETF H USD
Source: WS Partners, Morningstar

Euro Portfolios

Euro - Yield and Income

Cumulative Performance to end February 2025


Calendar Returns

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
Portfolio 2025 1,89% 0,06% 1,96%
Benchmark 1,15% 0,62% 1,77%
Portfolio 2024 0,42% 1,33% 2,00% -1,38% 1,02% 1,44% 1,04% 0,78% 1,49% -0,09% 2,22% -0,42% 10,24%
Benchmark 0,43% 0,85% 1,65% -2,05% 1,27% 1,65% 1,45% 0,75% 1,21% -1,03% 2,92% -1,00% 8,28%
Portfolio 2023 3,70% -1,02% -0,07% 0,08% 0,29% 1,42% 1,59% -0,64% -1,19% -2,57% 4,16% 3,03% 8,87%
Benchmark 3,27% -1,53% 1,63% 0,14% 0,35% 0,94% 0,68% -0,70% -1,99% -1,60% 4,30% 3,29% 8,90%
Portfolio 2022 -2,91% -2,17% -0,16% -2,12% -1,10% -3,49% 4,62% -1,10% -5,21% 1,76% 3,05% -2,00% -10,70%
Benchmark -2,28% -1,88% -0,61% -3,10% -0,67% -3,33% 4,99% -2,99% -4,96% 1,27% 2,84% -3,57% -13,80%
Portfolio 2021 0,50% 0,82% 0,91% 1,16% 0,24% 1,57% 0,44% 1,22% -1,16% 1,34% -1,04% 1,37% 7,57%
Benchmark -0,33% -0,29% 1,68% 0,75% 0,09% 1,77% 1,01% 0,81% -1,47% 1,54% 0,56% 0,61% 6,90%
Portfolio 2020 0,53% -2,09% -10,15% 6,30% 3,67% 2,35% 1,21% 2,25% -0,37% -0,38% 4,70% 1,75% 9,15%
Benchmark 1,13% -1,73% -5,70% 4,62% 1,04% 1,00% 0,61% 1,02% -0,20% -0,66% 3,46% 0,87% 5,22%
Portfolio 2019 4,15% 1,82% 1,00% 1,86% -2,37% 1,85% 1,52% -0,82% 1,13% 0,67% 1,75% 1,25% 14,54%
Benchmark 3,06% 1,06% 1,89% 1,05% -1,02% 2,15% 1,22% 0,92% 0,56% -0,15% 1,00% 0,23% 12,58%
Portfolio 2018 1,46% -1,36% -1,10% 1,26% 0,42% -0,66% 1,26% -0,03% 0,64% -2,96% -0,39% -2,99% -4,49%
Benchmark 0,04% -0,99% -0,65% 0,53% 1,28% -0,21% 0,78% 0,45% -0,21% -2,02% 0,66% -1,98% -2,37%
Portfolio 2017 1,24% 2,08% 0,35% 0,20% 0,10% -0,38% 0,23% -0,41% 0,61% 1,46% -0,20% 0,56% 5,97%
Benchmark -0,24% 2,01% 0,03% 0,26% -0,09% -0,64% -0,11% 0,31% 0,41% 1,35% -0,17% 0,26% 3,39%
Portfolio 2016 1,12% 2,05% 1,00% 0,53% 0,20% -0,23% 1,34% 6,16%
Benchmark 1,03% 1,51% 0,11% -0,22% -0,52% 0,14% 0,92% 3,00%

Benchmark: 1/3 iShares MSCI All Country World ETF (EUR) + 2/3 X II Barclays Gbl Agg ETF H EUR
Source: WS Partners, Morningstar


Euro - Balanced

Cumulative Performance to end February 2025


Calendar Returns

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
Portfolio 2025 1,89% 0,06% 1,96%
Benchmark 1,60% 0,30% 1,91%
Portfolio 2024 0,50% 1,61% 2,17% -1,61% 0,67% 1,34% 0,78% 0,67% 1,43% -0,49% 2,91% -0,82% 9,46%
Benchmark 0,90% 1,80% 2,06% -2,10% 1,58% 2,12% 1,26% 0,62% 1,27% -0,66% 3,83% -0,86% 12,32%
Portfolio 2023 3,20% -0,64% 0,06% -0,31% 0,47% 1,32% 1,52% -0,48% -1,06% -2,59% 3,51% 2,82% 1,38%
Benchmark 3,79% -1,28% 1,38% 0,07% 0,88% 1,56% 1,15% -0,83% -1,93% -1,92% 4,68% 3,35% 2,76%
Portfolio 2022 -3,08% -1,67% -0,12% -1,83% -1,46% -3,69% 5,15% -1,22% -4,82% 2,07% 2,20% -2,45% -10,78%
Benchmark -2,58% -2,12% 0,36% -3,06% -0,86% -4,04% 6,17% -2,83% -5,51% 2,24% 2,99% -4,51% -13,49%
Portfolio 2021 0,84% 1,41% 0,73% 1,03% 0,35% 1,67% 0,41% 1,08% -1,33% 1,17% -0,78% 1,75% 8,60%
Benchmark -0,18% 0,38% 2,77% 1,04% 0,07% 2,44% 0,94% 1,35% -1,69% 2,47% 0,51% 1,20% 11,83%
Portfolio 2020 0,13% -2,66% -8,37% 5,87% 2,62% 1,74% 1,18% 2,14% -0,39% -0,06% 5,39% 2,17% 9,37%
Benchmark 0,88% -3,11% -7,66% 6,19% 1,46% 1,29% 0,45% 1,98% -0,50% -0,95% 4,95% 1,22% 5,63%
Portfolio 2019 3,70% 1,71% 0,86% 1,56% -2,56% 1,43% 1,56% -1,09% 1,43% 0,91% 1,80% 1,08% 12,98%
Benchmark 4,15% 1,66% 2,07% 1,69% -2,11% 2,68% 1,56% 0,37% 1,20% -0,01% 1,66% 0,59% 16,49%
Portfolio 2018 1,08% -0,82% -0,93% 1,60% 0,42% -0,67% 1,30% -0,19% 0,71% -2,76% -0,21% -2,66% -3,17%
Benchmark 0,48% -1,28% -1,26% 1,10% 1,86% -0,28% 1,28% 0,65% -0,01% -2,80% 0,88% -3,48% -2,97%
Portfolio 2017 0,67% 1,98% 0,39% -0,11% -0,71% -0,09% 0,02% -0,47% 1,34% 1,57% -0,12% 0,19% 4,72%
Benchmark -0,12% 2,65% 0,16% 0,13% -0,33% -0,72% -0,22% 0,12% 0,93% 1,91% -0,23% 0,41% 4,72%
Portfolio 2016 0,25% 2,48% 1,02% 0,24% 0,35% 1,68% 1,74% 8,00%
Benchmark 0,67% 2,03% 0,27% -0,24% -0,20% 1,13% 1,38% 5,13%

Benchmark: 1/2 iShares MSCI All Country World ETF (EUR) + 1/2 X II Barclays Gbl Agg ETF H EUR
Source: WS Partners, Morningstar


Euro - Growth

Cumulative Performance to end February 2025


Calendar Returns

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
Portfolio 2025 2,63% -0,91% 1,69%
Benchmark 2,05% -0,01% 2,04%
Portfolio 2024 0,19% 2,71% 2,57% -1,82% 0,89% 2,39% 0,77% 0,52% 2,02% -0,07% 4,19% -0,56% 14,54%
Benchmark 1,36% 2,74% 2,48% -2,15% 1,88% 2,59% 1,07% 0,50% 1,33% -0,29% 4,75% -0,72% 16,49%
Portfolio 2023 4,78% -0,85% -0,24% -0,45% 0,86% 1,88% 2,19% -1,19% -1,50% -3,30% 4,89% 3,52% 1,95%
Benchmark 4,30% -1,02% 1,12% -0,01% 1,41% 2,18% 1,63% -0,96% -1,86% -2,23% 5,07% 3,40% 4,46%
Portfolio 2022 -4,44% -1,97% 0,55% -2,03% -1,70% -4,38% 6,76% -1,24% -6,09% 2,55% 3,46% -3,93% -12,47%
Benchmark -2,88% -2,36% 1,33% -3,02% -1,05% -4,74% 7,35% -2,66% -6,06% 3,20% 3,13% -5,44% -13,23%
Portfolio 2021 1,06% 1,44% 1,41% 1,03% -0,23% 2,81% 0,30% 1,90% -1,24% 2,42% -1,02% 1,20% 11,57%
Benchmark -0,02% 1,05% 3,86% 1,32% 0,05% 3,11% 0,86% 1,90% -1,90% 3,41% 0,46% 1,79% 16,94%
Portfolio 2020 0,07% -3,39% -8,86% 7,92% 2,08% 2,18% 0,65% 2,86% -0,13% -0,14% 6,55% 2,18% 11,49%
Benchmark 0,63% -4,49% -9,63% 7,76% 1,88% 1,58% 0,28% 2,94% -0,80% -1,24% 6,45% 1,57% 5,91%
Portfolio 2019 5,86% 2,49% 1,58% 2,40% -4,08% 2,86% 1,94% -1,50% 1,46% 0,72% 2,68% 1,14% 18,65%
Benchmark 5,24% 2,25% 2,25% 2,32% -3,20% 3,21% 1,90% -0,19% 1,84% 0,12% 2,32% 0,94% 20,48%
Portfolio 2018 1,10% -1,62% -1,70% 1,97% 1,78% -1,28% 1,39% 0,87% 0,07% -5,27% 0,55% -4,81% -7,06%
Benchmark 0,93% -1,56% -1,86% 1,67% 2,43% -0,35% 1,78% 0,85% 0,20% -3,58% 1,10% -4,97% -3,61%
Portfolio 2017 1,24% 2,58% 0,76% 0,29% -0,22% -0,54% 0,21% -0,93% 2,03% 2,43% -0,28% 0,98% 8,82%
Benchmark 0,00% 3,28% 0,29% 0,00% -0,56% -0,81% -0,34% -0,08% 1,45% 2,46% -0,29% 0,57% 6,05%
Portfolio 2016 -0,95% 3,88% 1,55% 0,66% 0,46% 2,35% 1,69% 9,98%
Benchmark 0,31% 2,56% 0,42% -0,26% 0,12% 2,13% 1,83% 7,28%

Benchmark: 2/3 iShares MSCI All Country World ETF (EUR) + 1/3 X II Barclays Gbl Agg ETF H EUR
Source: WS Partners, Morningstar