Profiles
Market Review and Outlook
Market Review – November 2022
Equity markets continued their recovery from October’s lows, with developed market equities gaining 7% and emerging market equities rallying by nearly 15%.
The bond market also registered a strong month with yields in the US and Europe retreating significantly, leading to a 4.7% rally for the Global Aggregate Bond index.
At the beginning of November, ongoing concerns about inflation and further central bank tightening were at the forefront of investors’ minds. Central banks did deliver another round of steep policy rate hikes. The Fed and the Bank of England raised policy rates by 75 basis points to 4.0% and 3.0% respectively.
However, despite headwinds from tighter monetary policy, investor sentiment improved significantly after the release of US inflation numbers for October. The 7.7% year- on-year increase was below consensus expectations, fuelling the market’s hopes that US inflation has now peaked and could prove less sticky than initially feared. The idea that falling inflation could mean that the end to the rate hiking cycle is not far off, gave both stocks and bonds a boost.
But, most part of the equity markets have still rich valuation, while developed economies are expected to enter into recessions, a situation that is not encouraging investors to add to risk assets such as equities. Rather, the bond markets looks more appealing with yields and spreads at attractive levels.
Outlook
We have made few changes in October to adjust the portfolios to the expected economic trends.
Firstly, we have introduced a new global equity fund. The fund provides exposure to undervalued, large cap equities based on a proprietary valuation methodology. The methodology tends to generate portfolios with high exposure to value and quality. The fund replaces a large cap quality growth portfolio.
Also in European equities, we have sold a deep-value strategy which has helped YTD on a relative value. We expect this fund to suffer in the coming quarters, given the forecasted economic environment in Europe. We bought a concentrated European growth fund to replace it.
In fixed income we have initiated a new corporate hybrid strategy, which is in our mind attractively valued (6% in EUR for BBB average credit quality). It will replace the senior loan fund which has contributed positively in relative terms, so far this year, due to its lack of duration. Given the level of rates, we are now more comfortable to add a little bit of duration.
Finally, we have switched on a one-to-one basis two absolute return strategies in the Balanced Portfolio. A long/short equity has been replaced by a market neutral multi-strategy fund, while we have switched a long-biased multi-asset strategy into a macro fund with less correlation to traditional financial markets.
Overall, we remain style-neutral on equities and slightly overweight in small caps and in EM equities. Although, we have increased the portfolios average duration, we are staying short on the yield curve, and we are maintaining an overweight exposure to credits.
The rules we have set out for these Model Portfolios are that we are always 100% invested and that the allocation between the major asset classes remain unchanged over time.
Performance Review – October & November 2022
October
Yield & Income Portfolio (in USD) +2.3% (+58bps vs. the benchmark)
Balanced portfolio (in USD) +2.6% (-22bps)
Growth portfolio (in USD) +3.4% (-55bps)
Spread tightening in corporate credit and emerging credit were the strongest factors of outperformance in October, while being short of duration also helped. In contrast, exposure to emerging equities had a prohibitive effect on performance.
All absolute return strategies in the Balanced Portfolio delivered positive performances but were slightly underperforming in relative terms the combined global equity and global fixed income benchmarks. The strong rebound of the risk premia fund (+4.6%) in the absolute return allocation is however to be highlighted.
Finally, active management contribution was neutral this month. It fairly well helped in the fixed income side (+45bps), while it was detrimental in the equity side (-32bps).
November
Yield & Income Portfolio (in USD) +5.1% (+64bps vs. the benchmark)
Balanced portfolio (in USD) +4.0% (-135bps)
Growth portfolio (in USD) +6.6% (+52bps)
Overweight in EM finally paid in November, both in Bonds and in Equities. They were the major drivers of outperformance, surpassing the alpha generated by fund managers (+28bps for the Yield and Income Portfolio, +10bps for the Balanced Portfolio and +41bps for the Growth Portfolio).
The Balanced Portfolio suffered from their Absolute Return allocation, as it is expected during sharp recovery rallies. Most of these strategies were positively oriented but they had a lagging effect compare to the broad benchmarks performance.
US Dollar Portfolios
USD - Yield and Income
Cumulative Performance to end November 2022
Calendar Returns
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2022 | -3.31% | -2.26% | -0.17% | -3.70% | -0.36% | -4.63% | 3.81% | -1.49% | -6.05% | 2.31% | 5.14% | -10.77% | |
| Benchmark | -2.68% | -1.78% | -0.80% | -4.67% | -0.08% | -3.95% | 4.16% | -3.28% | -5.55% | 1.73% | 4.50% | -12.23% | ||
| Portfolio | 2021 | 0.20% | 0.67% | -0.24% | 2.24% | 0.81% | 0.64% | 0.46% | 1.11% | -1.94% | 1.32% | -1.97% | 1.70% | 5.04% |
| Benchmark | -0.51% | -0.28% | 0.62% | 1.62% | 0.66% | 0.76% | 1.05% | 0.69% | -2.01% | 1.52% | -0.33% | 1.06% | 4.90% | |
| Portfolio | 2020 | 0.19% | -2.47% | -10.45% | 6.50% | 4.71% | 2.76% | 3.30% | 2.59% | -1.03% | -0.48% | 5.95% | 2.77% | 13.96% |
| Benchmark | 0.81% | -1.89% | -5.60% | 4.64% | 1.62% | 1.37% | 2.46% | 1.45% | -0.80% | -0.83% | 4.49% | 1.73% | 9.40% | |
| Portfolio | 2019 | 4.59% | 1.67% | 0.63% | 1.97% | -2.39% | 2.91% | 0.90% | -1.11% | 0.95% | 1.69% | 1.37% | 2.17% | 16.26% |
| Benchmark | 3.39% | 0.96% | 1.58% | 1.16% | -1.02% | 3.11% | 0.61% | 0.71% | 0.37% | 0.79% | 0.72% | 1.01% | 14.14% | |
| Portfolio | 2018 | 2.88% | -1.91% | -0.66% | 0.76% | -0.63% | -0.50% | 1.50% | -0.20% | 0.71% | -3.54% | -0.22% | -2.48% | -4.36% |
| Benchmark | 1.42% | -1.55% | -0.21% | 0.07% | 0.26% | -0.04% | 1.00% | 0.42% | -0.12% | -2.63% | 0.80% | -1.48% | -2.12% | |
| Portfolio | 2017 | 2.15% | 1.58% | 0.72% | 1.01% | 1.27% | 0.19% | 1.55% | 0.03% | 0.58% | 1.05% | 0.61% | 1.07% | 12.45% |
| Benchmark | 0.68% | 1.49% | 0.35% | 0.95% | 1.10% | -0.06% | 1.13% | 0.71% | 0.32% | 0.95% | 0.73% | 0.63% | 9.36% | |
| Portfolio | 2016 | 1.16% | 2.25% | 1.04% | 0.86% | -0.43% | -1.25% | 1.25% | 4.93% | |||||
| Benchmark | 1.04% | 1.81% | 0.06% | 0.17% | -1.23% | -0.86% | 0.84% | 1.81% |
Benchmark: 1/3 iShares MSCI All Country World ETF (USD) + 2/3 X II Barclays Gbl Agg ETF H USD
Source: WS Partners, Morningstar
USD - Balanced
Cumulative Performance to end November 2022
Calendar Returns
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2022 | -3.47% | -1.52% | -0.15% | -3.19% | -0.75% | -4.57% | 4.29% | -1.58% | -5.42% | 2.59% | 3.96% | -9.89% | |
| Benchmark | -3.22% | -1.99% | -0.02% | -5.49% | -0.03% | -5.06% | 4.87% | -3.38% | -6.55% | 2.81% | 5.31% | -12.80% | ||
| Portfolio | 2021 | 0.61% | 1.39% | -0.24% | 1.99% | 0.82% | 0.76% | 0.47% | 0.95% | -1.93% | 1.25% | -1.57% | 1.99% | 6.59% |
| Benchmark | -0.49% | 0.37% | 1.14% | 2.31% | 0.88% | 0.90% | 0.96% | 1.15% | -2.54% | 2.43% | -0.85% | 1.80% | 8.25% | |
| Portfolio | 2020 | -0.68% | -2.98% | -8.44% | 5.95% | 3.34% | 2.14% | 3.08% | 2.52% | -0.96% | -0.17% | 6.33% | 3.04% | 12.93% |
| Benchmark | 0.33% | -3.43% | -7.62% | 6.15% | 2.29% | 1.82% | 3.15% | 2.60% | -1.43% | -1.24% | 6.47% | 2.45% | 11.20% | |
| Portfolio | 2019 | 4.01% | 1.50% | 0.36% | 1.64% | -2.65% | 2.65% | 0.92% | -1.37% | 1.24% | 1.94% | 1.43% | 1.99% | 14.36% |
| Benchmark | 4.50% | 1.38% | 1.48% | 1.71% | -2.24% | 3.97% | 0.54% | -0.06% | 0.80% | 1.28% | 1.15% | 1.63% | 17.18% | |
| Portfolio | 2018 | 2.75% | -1.59% | -0.42% | 0.82% | -0.97% | -0.54% | 1.49% | -0.32% | 0.78% | -3.58% | -0.07% | -2.11% | -3.84% |
| Benchmark | 2.47% | -2.21% | -0.73% | 0.31% | 0.22% | -0.15% | 1.50% | 0.48% | 0.02% | -3.84% | 0.96% | -2.88% | -3.96% | |
| Portfolio | 2017 | 1.85% | 1.21% | 0.74% | 0.84% | 0.87% | 0.64% | 1.73% | 0.04% | 1.19% | 1.03% | 0.93% | 0.66% | 12.35% |
| Benchmark | 1.19% | 1.82% | 0.56% | 1.10% | 1.37% | 0.07% | 1.54% | 0.63% | 0.72% | 1.23% | 1.02% | 0.88% | 12.82% | |
| Portfolio | 2016 | 0.01% | 2.83% | 0.94% | 0.65% | -0.55% | 0.36% | 1.59% | 5.93% | |||||
| Benchmark | 0.62% | 2.43% | 0.12% | 0.28% | -1.35% | -0.46% | 1.17% | 2.81% |
Benchmark: 1/2 iShares MSCI All Country World ETF (USD) + 1/2 X II Barclays Gbl Agg ETF H USD
Source: WS Partners, Morningstar
USD - Growth
Cumulative Performance to end November 2022
Calendar Returns
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2022 | -5.28% | -1.74% | 0.30% | -4.87% | -0.59% | -6.19% | 5.02% | -2.16% | -7.50% | 3.35% | 6.64% | -13.26% | |
| Benchmark | -3.77% | -2.21% | 0.75% | -6.32% | 0.01% | -6.18% | 5.58% | -3.48% | -7.55% | 3.90% | 6.12% | -13.43% | ||
| Portfolio | 2021 | 0.55% | 1.37% | -0.56% | 2.80% | 0.62% | 0.94% | 0.34% | 1.59% | -2.47% | 2.50% | -2.66% | 1.60% | 6.68% |
| Benchmark | -0.47% | 1.01% | 1.65% | 3.00% | 1.11% | 1.04% | 0.88% | 1.61% | -3.06% | 3.33% | -1.36% | 2.54% | 11.67% | |
| Portfolio | 2020 | -0.68% | -4.30% | -9.68% | 8.05% | 3.42% | 2.83% | 4.24% | 3.53% | -1.30% | -0.43% | 8.50% | 3.72% | 17.74% |
| Benchmark | -0.16% | -4.98% | -9.63% | 7.67% | 2.96% | 2.26% | 3.84% | 3.75% | -2.06% | -1.65% | 8.44% | 3.17% | 12.84% | |
| Portfolio | 2019 | 6.20% | 2.06% | 0.71% | 2.39% | -4.35% | 4.44% | 0.61% | -2.00% | 0.95% | 2.30% | 2.02% | 2.51% | 18.89% |
| Benchmark | 5.61% | 1.81% | 1.38% | 2.27% | -3.47% | 4.83% | 0.46% | -0.83% | 1.23% | 1.77% | 1.57% | 2.25% | 20.23% | |
| Portfolio | 2018 | 3.65% | -2.87% | -1.07% | 0.82% | -0.44% | -1.19% | 1.66% | 0.54% | 0.00% | -6.66% | 0.64% | -4.12% | -9.06% |
| Benchmark | 3.53% | -2.87% | -1.24% | 0.54% | 0.17% | -0.26% | 2.00% | 0.55% | 0.16% | -5.05% | 1.13% | -4.28% | -5.81% | |
| Portfolio | 2017 | 2.83% | 1.52% | 1.28% | 1.65% | 1.88% | 0.46% | 2.48% | -0.28% | 1.77% | 1.50% | 1.22% | 1.64% | 19.45% |
| Benchmark | 1.70% | 2.14% | 0.78% | 1.25% | 1.65% | 0.19% | 1.95% | 0.54% | 1.12% | 1.51% | 1.32% | 1.12% | 16.37% | |
| Portfolio | 2016 | -1.01% | 4.18% | 1.46% | 1.17% | -1.04% | 0.28% | 1.33% | 6.44% | |||||
| Benchmark | 0.21% | 3.05% | 0.19% | 0.39% | -1.47% | -0.06% | 1.50% | 3.80% |
Benchmark: 2/3 iShares MSCI All Country World ETF (USD) + 1/3 X II Barclays Gbl Agg ETF H USD
Source: WS Partners, Morningstar
Euro Portfolios
Euro - Yield and Income
Cumulative Performance to end November 2022
Calendar Returns
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2022 | -2.91% | -2.17% | -0.16% | -2.12% | -1.10% | -3.49% | 4.62% | -1.10% | -5.21% | 1.76% | 3.05% | -8.87% | |
| Benchmark | -2.28% | -1.88% | -0.61% | -3.10% | -0.67% | -3.33% | 4.99% | -2.99% | -4.96% | 1.27% | 2.84% | -10.61% | ||
| Portfolio | 2021 | 0.50% | 0.82% | 0.91% | 1.16% | 0.24% | 1.57% | 0.44% | 1.22% | -1.16% | 1.34% | -1.04% | 1.37% | 7.57% |
| Benchmark | -0.33% | -0.29% | 1.68% | 0.75% | 0.09% | 1.77% | 1.01% | 0.81% | -1.47% | 1.54% | 0.56% | 0.61% | 6.90% | |
| Portfolio | 2020 | 0.53% | -2.09% | -10.15% | 6.30% | 3.67% | 2.35% | 1.21% | 2.25% | -0.37% | -0.38% | 4.70% | 1.75% | 9.15% |
| Benchmark | 1.13% | -1.73% | -5.70% | 4.62% | 1.04% | 1.00% | 0.61% | 1.02% | -0.20% | -0.66% | 3.46% | 0.87% | 5.22% | |
| Portfolio | 2019 | 4.15% | 1.82% | 1.00% | 1.86% | -2.37% | 1.85% | 1.52% | -0.82% | 1.13% | 0.67% | 1.75% | 1.25% | 14.54% |
| Benchmark | 3.06% | 1.06% | 1.89% | 1.05% | -1.02% | 2.15% | 1.22% | 0.92% | 0.56% | -0.15% | 1.00% | 0.23% | 12.58% | |
| Portfolio | 2018 | 1.46% | -1.36% | -1.10% | 1.26% | 0.42% | -0.66% | 1.26% | -0.03% | 0.64% | -2.96% | -0.39% | -2.99% | -4.49% |
| Benchmark | 0.04% | -0.99% | -0.65% | 0.53% | 1.28% | -0.21% | 0.78% | 0.45% | -0.21% | -2.02% | 0.66% | -1.98% | -2.37% | |
| Portfolio | 2017 | 1.24% | 2.08% | 0.35% | 0.20% | 0.10% | -0.38% | 0.23% | -0.41% | 0.61% | 1.46% | -0.20% | 0.56% | 5.97% |
| Benchmark | -0.24% | 2.01% | 0.03% | 0.26% | -0.09% | -0.64% | -0.11% | 0.31% | 0.41% | 1.35% | -0.17% | 0.26% | 3.39% | |
| Portfolio | 2016 | 1.12% | 2.05% | 1.00% | 0.53% | 0.20% | -0.23% | 1.34% | 6.16% | |||||
| Benchmark | 1.03% | 1.51% | 0.11% | -0.22% | -0.52% | 0.14% | 0.92% | 3.00% |
Benchmark: 1/3 iShares MSCI All Country World ETF (EUR) + 2/3 X II Barclays Gbl Agg ETF H EUR
Source: WS Partners, Morningstar
Euro - Balanced
Cumulative Performance to end November 2022
Calendar Returns
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2022 | -3.08% | -1.67% | -0.12% | -1.83% | -1.46% | -3.69% | 5.15% | -1.22% | -4.82% | 2.07% | 2.20% | -8.54% | |
| Benchmark | -2.58% | -2.12% | 0.36% | -3.06% | -0.86% | -4.04% | 6.17% | -2.83% | -5.51% | 2.24% | 2.99% | -9.41% | ||
| Portfolio | 2021 | 0.84% | 1.41% | 0.73% | 1.03% | 0.35% | 1.67% | 0.41% | 1.08% | -1.33% | 1.17% | -0.78% | 1.75% | 8.60% |
| Benchmark | -0.18% | 0.38% | 2.77% | 1.04% | 0.07% | 2.44% | 0.94% | 1.35% | -1.69% | 2.47% | 0.51% | 1.20% | 11.83% | |
| Portfolio | 2020 | 0.13% | -2.66% | -8.37% | 5.87% | 2.62% | 1.74% | 1.18% | 2.14% | -0.39% | -0.06% | 5.39% | 2.17% | 9.37% |
| Benchmark | 0.88% | -3.11% | -7.66% | 6.19% | 1.46% | 1.29% | 0.45% | 1.98% | -0.50% | -0.95% | 4.95% | 1.22% | 5.63% | |
| Portfolio | 2019 | 3.70% | 1.71% | 0.86% | 1.56% | -2.56% | 1.43% | 1.56% | -1.09% | 1.43% | 0.91% | 1.80% | 1.08% | 12.98% |
| Benchmark | 4.15% | 1.66% | 2.07% | 1.69% | -2.11% | 2.68% | 1.56% | 0.37% | 1.20% | -0.01% | 1.66% | 0.59% | 16.49% | |
| Portfolio | 2018 | 1.08% | -0.82% | -0.93% | 1.60% | 0.42% | -0.67% | 1.30% | -0.19% | 0.71% | -2.76% | -0.21% | -2.66% | -3.17% |
| Benchmark | 0.48% | -1.28% | -1.26% | 1.10% | 1.86% | -0.28% | 1.28% | 0.65% | -0.01% | -2.80% | 0.88% | -3.48% | -2.97% | |
| Portfolio | 2017 | 0.67% | 1.98% | 0.39% | -0.11% | -0.71% | -0.09% | 0.02% | -0.47% | 1.34% | 1.57% | -0.12% | 0.19% | 4.72% |
| Benchmark | -0.12% | 2.65% | 0.16% | 0.13% | -0.33% | -0.72% | -0.22% | 0.12% | 0.93% | 1.91% | -0.23% | 0.41% | 4.72% | |
| Portfolio | 2016 | 0.25% | 2.48% | 1.02% | 0.24% | 0.35% | 1.68% | 1.74% | 8.00% | |||||
| Benchmark | 0.67% | 2.03% | 0.27% | -0.24% | -0.20% | 1.13% | 1.38% | 5.13% |
Benchmark: 1/2 iShares MSCI All Country World ETF (EUR) + 1/2 X II Barclays Gbl Agg ETF H EUR
Source: WS Partners, Morningstar
Euro - Growth
Cumulative Performance to end November 2022
Calendar Returns
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2022 | -4.44% | -1.97% | 0.55% | -2.03% | -1.70% | -4.38% | 6.76% | -1.24% | -6.09% | 2.55% | 3.46% | -8.88% | |
| Benchmark | -2.88% | -2.36% | 1.33% | -3.02% | -1.05% | -4.74% | 7.35% | -2.66% | -6.06% | 3.20% | 3.13% | -8.23% | ||
| Portfolio | 2021 | 1.06% | 1.44% | 1.41% | 1.03% | -0.23% | 2.81% | 0.30% | 1.90% | -1.24% | 2.42% | -1.02% | 1.20% | 11.57% |
| Benchmark | -0.02% | 1.05% | 3.86% | 1.32% | 0.05% | 3.11% | 0.86% | 1.90% | -1.90% | 3.41% | 0.46% | 1.79% | 16.94% | |
| Portfolio | 2020 | 0.07% | -3.39% | -8.86% | 7.92% | 2.08% | 2.18% | 0.65% | 2.86% | -0.13% | -0.14% | 6.55% | 2.18% | 11.49% |
| Benchmark | 0.63% | -4.49% | -9.63% | 7.76% | 1.88% | 1.58% | 0.28% | 2.94% | -0.80% | -1.24% | 6.45% | 1.57% | 5.91% | |
| Portfolio | 2019 | 5.86% | 2.49% | 1.58% | 2.40% | -4.08% | 2.86% | 1.94% | -1.50% | 1.46% | 0.72% | 2.68% | 1.14% | 18.65% |
| Benchmark | 5.24% | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.32% | -3.20% | 3.21% | 1.90% | -0.19% | 1.84% | 0.12% | 2.32% | 0.94% | 20.48% | |
| Portfolio | 2018 | 1.10% | -1.62% | -1.70% | 1.97% | 1.78% | -1.28% | 1.39% | 0.87% | 0.07% | -5.27% | 0.55% | -4.81% | -7.06% |
| Benchmark | 0.93% | -1.56% | -1.86% | 1.67% | 2.43% | -0.35% | 1.78% | 0.85% | 0.20% | -3.58% | 1.10% | -4.97% | -3.61% | |
| Portfolio | 2017 | 1.24% | 2.58% | 0.76% | 0.29% | -0.22% | -0.54% | 0.21% | -0.93% | 2.03% | 2.43% | -0.28% | 0.98% | 8.82% |
| Benchmark | 0.00% | 3.28% | 0.29% | 0.00% | -0.56% | -0.81% | -0.34% | -0.08% | 1.45% | 2.46% | -0.29% | 0.57% | 6.05% | |
| Portfolio | 2016 | -0.95% | 3.88% | 1.55% | 0.66% | 0.46% | 2.35% | 1.69% | 9.98% | |||||
| Benchmark | 0.31% | 2.56% | 0.42% | -0.26% | 0.12% | 2.13% | 1.83% | 7.28% |
Benchmark: 2/3 iShares MSCI All Country World ETF (EUR) + 1/3 X II Barclays Gbl Agg ETF H EUR
Source: WS Partners, Morningstar